Price trend of Peanut glutinous rice balls in 2026

Retail & wholesale price of peanut glutinous rice balls will present phased weak fluctuation, mild annual average up 2%-3%, obvious seasonal differentiation; raw material surplus restrains sharp price surge, industry competition suppresses low-end price while high-end branded products rise steadily. The full-year price trajectory: Q1 post-festival down → Q2-Q3 cost bottom consolidation→Q4 pre-Spring Festival seasonal rally (yearly peak).

1. Raw Material Cost Trend (Key Pricing Driver: Glutinous Rice+Shelled Peanut)

(1) Glutinous Rice (outer skin raw material)

2026 domestic glutinous rice inventory remains ample after 2025's expanded planting in Northeast China; low-cost Vietnamese imported glutinous rice continuously suppress domestic spot price.

Q2-Q3: Main producing area factory price 2.15-2.25 RMB/jin, overall downtrend during Dragon Boat Festival without seasonal surge, cost stays at historically medium-low level;

Q4: Pre-Spring Festival centralized procurement lifts glutinous rice by 5%-8% month-on-month, forming seasonal cost uplift.

Full-year glutinous rice average cost falls 1%-2% vs 2025.

(2) Edible Peanut Kernels (core filling raw material)

Domestic peanut maintains high annual output (~20 million tons) after three consecutive years of planting expansion, overall supply exceeds demand, price oscillates near planting cost line (~3.5 RMB/jin as cost bottom, limiting further slump).

Q1-Q3 (before new crop harvest): Bulk common peanut 3.6-3.8 RMB/jin, high-quality food-grade peanut 4.1-4.5 RMB/jin, food manufacturers adopt “purchase on demand without stockpiling”, raw peanut price fluctuates within narrow range;

Aug-Oct (new peanut gap period) & Nov-Dec (festival stocking): High-quality peanut rises 10%-15% periodically; ordinary bulk peanut climbs roughly 8%, becoming the main upward cost driver for peanut filling.

Full-year average peanut raw material price flat with 2025, high-quality grade gains obvious premium.

(3) Auxiliary & processing cost

Energy, packaging, cold-chain & labor cost climb 3%-5% yearly; automated production of large brands dilutes unit manufacturing cost, small-scale workshop cost pressure is higher.

2. Phased Price Trend Breakdown by Four Quarters of 2026

(1) Q1 (Jan-Mar, post-Lantern Festival off-season)

Lantern Festival centralized consumption ends, terminal demand plunges, clearing promotion dominates market;

Wholesale price (500g): ordinary bulk 8.5-10 RMB, mid-range brand 11.5-13 RMB, premium peanut stuffing 15-17 RMB; all specifications down 3%-5% month-on-month vs late Dec 2025;

Key logic: excess channel inventory, merchants cut price to destock, raw material cost fails to support pricing.

(2) Q2-Q3 (Apr-Sep, traditional off-season for tangyuan)

Glutinous rice price keeps falling, peanut raw material hovers at low level; catering & household sporadic purchase only, industry intensifies price competition, low-end products stay in price war:

Q2-Aug: Whole-year price trough; bulk peanut glutinous rice ball wholesale 8.2-9.5 RMB/500g, small factory products even drop below 8 RMB; first-tier brands (Sanquan/Synear) maintain price stability via reduced promotion intensity, slight price firming;

Sep (pre-Mid-Autumn): Partial food factories start pre-production stocking, high-quality peanut filling quotation edges up 4%-6%, mid-high end tangyuan price rises 2%-3% in advance.

(3) Q4 (Oct-Dec, pre-Spring Festival peak stocking, yearly price high)

Mid-to-late Oct: new-crop peanut hits market, initial listing price is low; Nov-Dec: continuous stocking for New Year's Day & Spring Festival drives terminal demand explosion, core price rising window:

Bulk wholesale up 7%-10% vs Q3 bottom; mid-range branded 13-15.5 RMB/500g, premium high-protein peanut stuffing products hit 18-20 RMB/500g, full-year price ceiling appears in mid-December;

Upward constraint: abundant raw material inventory restricts excessive markup, price surge amplitude lower than previous tight-supply years.

3. Price Differentiation by Product Grade & Region

(1) Product tier divergence

Low-end bulk/wholesale for catering: Intense homogenized competition, full-year price almost flat (annual fluctuation within ±2%), easily cut price during off-season;

Mid-range mainstream retail brand: Annual average up 2%-3%, seasonal fluctuation follows raw material rhythm;

Premium high-oil whole-peanut filling tangyuan: Independent pricing logic, high-quality peanut raw material premium drives full-year average up 4%-6%, anti-price-war capability strongest.

(2) Regional gap

South China/East China (high-consumption): Retail benchmark price +5%-8% vs northern producing area, cold-chain cost pushes up terminal quotation;

Northeast/Shandong/Henan (raw material origin): Factory direct wholesale price is the lowest, seasonal fluctuation range narrower than consumption-end market.

4. Key Risk Factors Affecting Price Swing

(1) Upward risks

Severe weather damage to main peanut/glutinous rice producing areas in Jul-Sep leads to yield cut, raw material jumps sharply;

Sharp climb of international crude oil pushes fertilizer, logistics & cold-chain cost up markedly.

(2) Downward risks

Mass influx of low-price Southeast Asian imported glutinous rice suppress domestic grain price;

Continuous industry oversupply intensifies long-term price competition, small manufacturers reduce pricing to seize market share.

5. Full-year average benchmark price reference (500g specification)