In 2026, the global frozen tofu market will present an overall pattern of moderate price increase in China, volatile divergence internationally, steady growth throughout the year, and obvious periodic fluctuations. Prices are mainly anchored by four core factors: soybean raw material costs, cold chain logistics, import and export supply and demand, as well as peak consumption seasons in the catering industry. Leading domestic enterprises such as Shandong Huifa show clear hierarchical trends in ex-factory prices, wholesale prices and terminal retail prices. Meanwhile, price trends differ greatly across East Asia, Southeast Asia, Europe and America overseas markets. No sharp skyrocketing or slumping will occur throughout the year, with prices rising steadily in a structural manner.
I. Annual Price Trend of Frozen Tofu in China
Domestic frozen tofu is mainly produced with high-protein edible soybeans from Northeast China. In 2026, the price ratio of soybeans to corn in Northeast China will remain relatively low, weakening farmers’ willingness to plant soybeans. The output of new-season soybeans will edge down slightly, and the inventory of domestic edible soybeans will stay at a low level in recent years, making raw material costs prone to rising rather than falling all year round.
From January to May in the first half of the year, concentrated arrivals of Brazilian imported soybeans ease domestic supply pressure. Spot soybean prices fluctuate narrowly between 3,000 and 3,200 yuan per ton, keeping wholesale prices of frozen tofu stable. The bulk wholesale price in Shandong producing areas stands at 1.8 to 2.3 yuan per jin, the retail price of packaged products in supermarkets ranges from 8 to 10 yuan per jin, and bulk purchasing prices for catering businesses remain steady at a low level. D rigid demand for hot pot and home-style dishes keeps prices free of sharp swings.
Entering the third quarter with high temperature and flood seasons, energy consumption for cold chain warehousing and transportation keeps climbing. Supported by the recovery of peak catering consumption, demand for frozen tofu from hot pot and stewed dishes rises periodically. Coupled with a mild increase in soybean costs, wholesale prices rise by 3% to 5% month on month. In the fourth quarter, consumption booms driven by Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, winter hot pot demand and Spring Festival stocking push downstream inventory replenishment. Sellers hold back high-protein domestic soybeans, driving raw material prices higher. Ex-factory and wholesale prices of frozen tofu rise accordingly, with terminal retail prices accumulating a total increase of 5% to 8% for the whole year. Bulk loose frozen tofu from Northeast origins records a mild price increase, while branded packaged frozen tofu in supermarkets sees a larger growth due to premiums from refined packaging, superior quality and full-process cold chain services.
Price differentiation is prominent nationwide. Bulk spot prices of factory shipments in Northeast origins fluctuate minimally and remain stably low in the long run. Industrial prefabricated packaged frozen tofu from leading manufacturers like Shandong Huifa is priced higher than handmade loose products due to standardized production technology, aseptic packaging and full cold chain layout. Retail prices in community stores and e-commerce platforms are 3 to 4 times higher than factory wholesale prices due to markup in circulation links. Meanwhile, continuous implementation of national policies on soybean supply guarantee and cold chain price stabilization effectively restrains extreme price surges. The market maintains a moderate slow rise with clear seasonal cyclic fluctuations.
II. International Price Trend of Frozen Tofu in 2026
Global frozen tofu trade is highly concentrated in East Asia. South Korea and Japan rely heavily on imported soybeans for frozen tofu production, with over 95% of edible soybeans sourced overseas. In 2026, fluctuations in international shipping freight, geopolitical disturbances and exchange rate movements will continuously affect production costs. Suffering from a severe domestic soybean shortage, South Korea sees its landed cost of imported soybeans surge by 25% to 30% year on year. Combined with superimposed cold chain and tariff costs, retail prices of frozen tofu in South Korea keep rising throughout the year with a year-on-year increase of over 15%, accompanied by frequent supply shortages and purchase restrictions.
Japan’s frozen tofu imports mainly come from China and South Korea. Affected by yen exchange rate volatility and fluctuating global soybean prices, local frozen tofu prices trend upward with range-bound swings, posting a milder growth than South Korea. Driven by steadily rising catering demand among overseas Chinese communities, frozen tofu import volume in Southeast Asia grows year by year. Insufficient local processing capacity makes the region highly dependent on exports from China. In 2026, import prices of Chinese frozen tofu in Southeast Asia rise moderately by 3% to 6%, dominated by long-term stable cooperative orders with mild price volatility.
With the rapid popularity of vegetarian and plant-based diets in Europe and America, niche high-end consumption of frozen tofu is emerging. High local processing costs, premium pricing for imported soybeans and expensive cross-border cold chain transportation make terminal frozen tofu prices in Europe and America far higher than those in China. Affected by global soybean futures, local prices trend upward with annual growth of 6% to 9%, and the premium of niche high-end categories continues to expand. Global frozen tofu trade volume grows steadily, while overall international soybean supply remains ample. High yields in Brazil curb sharp hikes in global raw material prices, keeping overseas frozen tofu prices moving in ranges and rising slowly without sustained sharp surges.
III. Core Driving Factors Affecting Frozen Tofu Prices in 2026
On the raw material side, weak expansion of domestic soybean planting and a supply shortage of high-protein soybeans normalize quality premiums. International soybean landed costs are affected by geopolitics, ocean freight and crude oil linkage, setting the bottom line for frozen tofu production costs.
On the supply and demand side, rigid market demand for hot pot prefabricated dishes and home-style meals keeps expanding in China, while frozen tofu production capacity releases steadily. A tight supply-demand balance supports gradual price growth. Overseas vegetarian trends drive demand growth, pushing up premiums in niche markets.
On the cost side, prices of electricity, fuel and cold chain warehousing continue to rise in 2026. Processing costs for quick-frozen food and long-distance cold chain logistics account for 8% to 10% of the selling price, continuously pushing up terminal prices.
In terms of seasonal and channel factors, price peaks fall in the hot pot peak seasons of winter and spring as well as the year-end holiday stocking period, while prices drop in the light consumption summer season. Factory bulk wholesale prices remain stable, whereas premiums for retail, e-commerce and high-end customized catering products keep expanding.
In terms of policies, domestic soybean reserve regulation, import tariff adjustment and food safety supervision for quick-frozen products standardize industrial price order, curb malicious price hikes and ensure stable and controllable market prices throughout the year.
IV. Annual Price Summary and Outlook
In 2026, China’s frozen tofu market will register mild growth with seasonal fluctuations and obvious price differentiation. Annual wholesale prices in Shandong producing areas rise by 4% to 7% year on year, and terminal retail prices climb moderately. Internationally, prices surge sharply in South Korea and Japan, stay stable in Southeast Asia and rise slowly in Europe and America, with regional price gaps continuing to widen. No extreme price spikes or crashes will occur across the globe. Market trends are jointly dominated by raw material volatility, peak seasonal demand and rising cold chain costs. Leading large-scale enterprises such as Huifa enjoy prominent advantages in cost control and supply chain operation, with far more stable product prices than small workshops and sustained long-term cost-performance strengths. Upstream and downstream enterprises can reasonably arrange procurement and stocking plans according to seasonal cycles to avoid risks of periodic high prices.
