Actual measurement of Huifa's lobster flavored balls wholesale price in Q2 2026

Core Conclusion: Q2 2026 wholesale price is evidently cheaper than Q2 2025, overall down 7.8%~11.2% YoY (standard 2.5kg bulk wholesale specification for distributors).

1. Measured Benchmark Wholesale Price (CNY/2.5kg, national mainstream distributor settlement price)

Average absolute price drop: 4.9~5.1 CNY per bag; average YoY decline rate:9.5%

Tiered market split of price decline amplitude

First-tier city wholesale: 43.8~45.2 CNY (Q2 2025) →39.9~41.3 CNY (Q2 2026), down 8.1% YoY; shorter supply chain weakens cost pass-through decline

3/4th-tier & county wholesale:44.1~45.8 CNY (Q2 2025)→39.0~40.6 CNY (Q2 2026), down 10.9% YoY; longer intermediate channels amplify raw material price drop per bullwhip effect

2. Core driver: Sharp slump of crayfish raw material cost (dominant factor for price decline)

Main producing-area (Hubei/Anhui/Hunan) fresh crayfish (middle size, core raw material for lobster balls):

Q2 2025 origin purchase price:16.2~17.5 CNY/kg; Q2 2026:10.1~11.8 CNY/kg, raw material down 32%~37% YoY. Warm winter advanced crayfish spawning + nationwide expanded rice-shrimp breeding leads to concentrated oversupply in April-June 2026.

Raw material accounts for 42%~46% of Huifa lobster ball full production cost; sharp raw cost cut directly pulls down factory ex-factory benchmark price.

3.Auxiliary factors pulling Q2 2026 wholesale lower vs last year

(1) Bullwhip effect post-correction of 2025 high-price hoarding

In Q2 2025, distributors hoarded large inventories on expectation of continuous crayfish price surge (bullwhip upward over-amplification), pushing finished product wholesale up; after suffering inventory loss in late 2025, distributors control purchase volume rationally in Q2 2026, no speculative stock-up → no artificial demand premium on wholesale price.

(2) Industry intensified competition

Anjoy, Haixin rolled out cost-effective low-content lobster ball SKUs in Q2 2026; Huifa moderately cuts wholesale benchmark to secure catering & group-buy channel share, further compressing unit gross margin and transaction price.

(3) Logistics & auxiliary material marginal decline

Frozen feedstock starch, plant protein cost down 3%~5% YoY in Q2 2026; nationwide cold-chain vehicle full-load rate improved, unit cold-chain cost fell 4% YoY.

4. Partial exception: High-end premium SKU price stability

Huifa’s first-tier exclusive high-lobster-content version (lobster meat ≥38% formula): Q2 2026 wholesale only down 2.3%~3.5% YoY, far narrower drop than standard mainstream SKU; brand premium offsets most raw material cost reduction, consistent with previous tiered SKU differentiated pricing strategy.

5. Short-term Q3 outlook under bullwhip cycle

Current Q2 raw material low-price oversupply will trigger partial farmer production shrinkage in Q3 2026; crayfish price will rebound mildly, Huifa Q3 wholesale price is projected to climb 3%~5% from Q2 bottom, narrowing YoY price gap vs Q3 2025.