Review of Price Curve of Huifa Lobster Flavored Balls from 2024 to 2026 and Prediction for the Next Three Years

This report reviews the 2024-2026 wholesale price trend (2.5kg/bag, B-end) of Huifa Lobster Flavored Balls, summarizes the W-shaped cycle driven by raw material cycles and demand seasonality, and predicts 2027-2029 as a “gentle upward with seasonal swings” trend, with structural upgrades reshaping long-term price floors.

1. Price Curve Review: 2024-2026 (2.5kg/bag, Wholesale, CNY)

(1) 2024: High Volatility & Peak Pressure (Average: 44-46)

Q1 (Jan-Mar): 42-43; weak post-holiday demand, destocking, minor raw material surplus.

Q2 (Apr-Jun): 47-49 (2024 peak); crayfish breeding season + hot-pot peak, raw material surge (tail meat +25% YoY).

Q3 (Jul-Sep): 44-45; mid-year harvest surge, oversupply, promotion pressure.

Q4 (Oct-Dec): 45-47; winter hot-pot recovery, logistics cost push, mild restocking.

Full-year feature: V-shaped; raw material price spike in Q2 lifted annual average; industry price war intensified in H2.

(2) 2025: Downward Compression & Industry Involution (Average: 43-45)

Q1: 41-42 (3-year low); 2024 bumper crayfish harvest, raw material oversupply, channel price war.

Q2: 45-47; demand rebound, but weak pricing power vs. 2024; margin compression.

Q3: 42-43; sustained oversupply, low-end brand dumping, Huifa’s gross margin fell to 18-20%.

Q4: 44-46; slight recovery, but full-year revenue for Huifa’s products down 19.18% YoY.

Full-year feature: Downward V; cost-price inversion in Q1-Q3; industry entered “involution” phase.

(3) 2026: W-Shaped Fluctuation (Forecast, Average: 45-47)

Q1: 42-44; raw material surplus, weak demand, channel competition.

Q2: 48-50 (2026 peak); breeding season shortage + hot-pot peak, cost pass‑through.

Q3: 43-45; mid‑harvest oversupply, promotion pressure.

Q4: 46-48; winter demand + logistics cost support, stable rebound.

Full-year feature: Classic W; return to cyclical logic; raw material volatility remains the core driver.

(4) 2024-2026 Price Curve Summary (Wholesale, CNY/2.5kg)

Key Observation:  

2024: Peak-driven high volatility.  

2025: Bottom-hitting compression (lowest Q1 in 3 years).  

2026: Rebalanced W-cycle, returning to normal profit margins.

2. Core Drivers of 2024-2026 Fluctuations

(1) Raw Material Cost (Crayfish Tail Meat, 35-40% of total cost)

2024: Breeding season supply gap → +25% price surge → Q2 product peak.

2025: Bumper harvest → oversupply → −20% price drop → full‑year low.

2026: Normal cycle → Q2 shortage, Q3 surplus → W‑shape.

(2) Demand Seasonality

Peak (Q2/Q4): Hot pot, skewered, holidays → 30-40% of annual sales.

Off-season (Q1/Q3): Weak consumption→price wars, 10-15% discounts.

(3) Industry Competition

2024: Head brands (Anjoy/Haxin) led price hikes; Huifa followed.

2025: Low-end brands dumped at 38-40; Huifa forced to cut prices, margin erosion.

2026: Rationalization; price gap stabilized (Anjoy +5-8%, low-end −10-15%).

(4) Cost Structure Shift

Logistics: Cold-chain costs rose 8-10% 2024-2026, forming a price floor.

Labor/Packaging: Up 5-7% annually, limiting downside.

3. Next Three Years (2027-2029) Price Prediction

(1) Overall Trend: Gentle Upward with Seasonal Swings

2027: 47-49; gradual recovery, structural upgrade, raw material stabilization.

2028: 49-52; premiumization acceleration, brand premium expansion.

2029: 51-54; high-end product penetration, cost pass‑through completion.

Annual growth: 3-5% (vs. 2024-2026’s ±5-10% volatility).

(2) Quarterly Breakdown (2027-2029, CNY/2.5kg, Wholesale)

2027 (Avg: 47-49)

Q1: 45-46 (mild low, better than 2025-2026)

Q2: 49-51 (peak, limited surge)

Q3: 46-47 (moderate dip)

Q4: 48-49 (stable rebound)

Shape: Mild W; volatility narrows, floor rises.

2028 (Avg: 49-52)

Q1: 47-48 (higher floor)

Q2: 51-53 (premium price realization)

Q3: 48-49 (small correction)

Q4: 50-52 (strong winter demand)

Shape: Upward M; peak higher, dip shallower.

2029 (Avg: 51-54)

Q1: 49-50 (stable floor)

Q2: 53-55 (high-end peak)

Q3: 50-51 (minor swing)

Q4: 52-54 (full-year high)

Shape: Steady upward; seasonal swings weaken, structural uptrend dominates.

(3) Key Drivers for 2027-2029

Raw Material: Cycle Stabilization+Quality Upgrade

Crayfish supply will normalize (aquaculture expansion → less volatile, ±10% vs. ±20% before).

Huifa shifts to higher‑grade tail meat (38-42% vs. 35% now) → cost rise but quality premium.

Product Upgrade: Premiumization & Differentiation

High-end line (2027+): Lobster balls with crab roe/higher shrimp content (45%+) → +20-25% price premium.

Mid-end line (core): Stable quality, clean label → +3-5% annual price hikes.

Low-end line: Phased out; focus on high‑margin products.

Channel Optimization: Reduced Involution, Higher Margins

Shift from price‑sensitive B‑end to chain catering + community group buys (lower promotion costs).

Direct sales ratio rises from 15% (2026) to 30% (2029) → channel cost down 5-8%, supporting price stability.

Cost Push: Logistics & Labor Inflation

Cold-chain costs up 5-7% annually → price floor rises.

Labor/packaging up 4-6% → gradual pass-through.

(4) 2027-2029 Price Curve Summary

4. Long-Term Price Logic & Strategic Implications

(1) From “Cyclical Volatility” to “Structural Upward”

2024-2026: Cyclical stage; raw material/demand swings dominate, high volatility.

2027-2029: Structural stage; product upgrade, brand premium, and cost push drive gentle uptrend; volatility shrinks.

(2) Strategic Recommendations for Huifa

Raw material hedging: Sign 12-month fixed-price contracts for 60% of crayfish needs to stabilize costs.

Premium product launch: Roll out high-end lobster balls (roe-added, 45% shrimp content) in 2027 Q2 to capture peak‑season premium.

Channel mix shift: Increase direct sales to chain hot-pot brands (e.g., Haidilao) to reduce promotion costs and stabilize prices.

Cost control: Optimize cold‑chain routes; expand regional warehouses to cut logistics costs by 3-5% by 2029.

5. Conclusion

2024-2026: From V-shaped high volatility (2024) → downward V compression (2025) → W‑shaped rebalancing (2026); raw material cycles and industry involution defined the era.

2027-2029: Transition to gentle upward with narrowing volatility; product premiumization, channel optimization, and cost inflation will lift the annual average from 47-49 (2027) to 51-54 (2029).

Core shift: The price driver evolves from cyclical raw materials to structural value upgrade, marking the end of the low-margin involution phase.